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A large number of projects launched in 2014 are still coming to the market. As a result supply in H1 2015 remain high: 363,000 sq m was commissioned in Q1 and 359,000 sq m is expected for delivery in Q2.
Despite weak demand, quarterly take-up amounted to 255,000 sq m and 40% of it was produced by just one just one XXL-Warehouse transaction (100,000 sqm).
90% of current market offerings, including both delivered projects and those under construction, are denominated in Roubles.
Vacancy has reached 1 mln. sq m or 10.9% of total stock. However, its further growth is highly unlikely to happen.
The market has almost completely moved into Roubles: 90% of offerings are denominated in local currency.
Average weighted rents have not changed since the beginning of the year and have stabilised at RUR 4,600 per sq m.
• Three business centers with a total office area of 90,700 sq m were commissioned
• 87% of the total office area came from Evolution Tower, located in Moscow-City. The two other office buildings are Slobodskoy BC on Leninskaya Sloboda Street and BC on 7 Nastasyinsky Lane
• Class A share in new delivery was 87%, Class B was 13%
• Total leasing activity (includes new leases, sale deals for owner occupation and contract renewals and renegotiations) was 230,200 sq m of which new leases accounted for 45% (102,900 sq m), contract renewals and renegotiations – 38% (86,700 sq m), sale deals – 17% (40,600 sq m)
• Take-up (includes new leases and sale deals) was 143,500 sq m (30% less than in both Q1 and Q4 2014)
• 85% of total take-up was Class B space, and 15% Class A
• 54% of total take-up was in the area between the TTR and MKAD
• Russian companies remained the most active with 92% of the total take-up
• Overall vacancy increased insignificantly from 16.6% in Q4 2014 to 17% in Q1 2015
• Vacancy rate increased from 12.8% to 13.6% in Class B, stabilized in Class A from 28% down to 27.4%
• Asking rents decreased by 5-15%
• Rate band is still applied mainly at the level of 50–55 Roubles per 1 USD
2014 – 2015 are likely to be the last years when the city centre will see such large volumes of new supply, due to the legislative changes
New projects in the CBD are likely to focus on redevelopment of existing buildings
Transactions conducted in the CBD during 2014 totalled 171,700 sq m (23% of the total) which is 23% less than in 2013 (221,000 sq m). In 2014 take-up volume decrease was registered not only in the CBD but in the whole market (around 736,000 sq m was done in 2014, 1,072 mln sq m – in 2013)
Negative political perception of Russia, as well as forecasts for deterioration of economic performance in 2014 influenced mainly the premium office segment. Owners of Class A buildings in central locations with high vacancy rates are ready to offer individual commercial terms to reliable tenants
Moscow City - project implemented in accordance with international practice. The location and functional breakdown areas correspond with international experience. Solutions infrastructure problems are understandable. It remains to implement them in the planned scope and timing.
Construction business district seems quite aggressive. For example, definitely lacking in green (park) zones. Nevertheless, using space and river promenade, this issue can be resolved.
The area is a true alternative to the Central Business District. Current problems stem from the fact that the project is in the middle of the implementation process in the context of the construction of buildings, and in terms of transport infrastructure.
In Q1 2015, depending on the rigidity of the macroeconomic scenario and the Rouble exchange rate, rental rates fixed in dollars could fall by a further 10-30%; if this happens, they would be lower in absolute terms than during the 2008-2009 crisis
Asset prices have declined by 10-50% over the last year and this process is not finished yet
Most of the negative events have either already occurred or will occur in Q1 2015
The risks are still high, but the end of Q2 2015 could be a good time for acquisitions