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CEE CRE investment market (excl Russia) up by 11% Y-o-Y, based on preliminary data.
Continued strong interest in commercial real estate driven by low interest rates and increased allocation towards the asset class.
Based on the deal pipeline a strong Q4 2014 is expected. No signs of a slowdown of this activity are visible in the marketplace and therefore a continuation of increasing volumes is anticipated into 2015.
Poland’s real estate market continues to attract strong investment. Limited availability of product in prime segment makes capital considering CZ, RO, HU as alternatives.
Investment in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania increases further.
Russia’s CRE investment drops around 45% Y-o-Y. Cross-border activity during Q3 was concentrated on prime properties with low vacancy
The current CRE market weakness to large extent is still driven by negative sentiments rather than fundamental factors
Market will remain under pressure, at least, until Q1 2015 included
Starting from Q2 2015, we might witness a gradual restoration of market balance, followed by a recovery in rental rates
Alternatively, CRE market indicators will be “flat”, with a possible deterioration, depending on the depth of an economic recession. In this case, the decrease in take up volumes in 2015 might exceed 20% compared to 2013
The problem of labour resource capacity is current for the whole logistics business. This is due not only to the recent emergence of the sector and to the infancy of the vocational training system, but also to the active growth of logistics in general.
The Moscow region, despite the fact that it is overcrowded, suffers from the common trend of labour force availability in the logistics industry. Moreover, the problem of labour resource capacity in the Moscow region in particular results from the uneven distribution of warehouse property geographically compared with population density.
The wealthiest locations in terms of labour resources are the North-East and East directions, while the main warehouse stock is in the North, North-West, South and South-East of the Moscow region.
This has led to local workforce shortages in most geographic directions and has resulted in competition for staff between logistics companies.
2014 – 2015 are likely to be the last years when the city centre will see such large volumes of new supply, due to the legislative changes
New projects in the CBD are likely to focus on redevelopment of existing buildings
In 2013 we registered the lowest volume of deals closed in the Prime CBD since 2010 (in 2013 take-up was around 39,000 sq m compared to 99,000 sq m in 2012). It follows general trend of decreased demand for CBD office space: 118,000 sq m in 2013 compared to 300,000 sq m in 2012
Negative political perception of Russia, as well as forecasts for deterioration of economic performance in 2014 influenced mainly the premium office segment. Owners of Class A buildings in central locations with high vacancy rates are ready to offer individual commercial terms to reliable tenants
Majority of respondents purchase clothes and footwear, accessories, jewelry, household goods etc. in regional and super regional shopping and entertainment malls with a gross leasable area (GLA) of more than 40,000 sq m.
Key factors of which shopping mall to visit include the price of the goods, and the cleanliness and location of the mall. The percentage of respondents who mentioned these three factors was 73%, 69% and 62% respectively. In this regard Europeans have the same criteria when choosing a shopping centre for the purchase of non-food
Navigation inside a shopping mall often becomes a critical factor for many visitors as it is sometimes unclear and inconvenient. Typical problems usually include a lack of signs and difficulties in understanding them
In H1 2014 the total stock in the regions (excluding the Moscow and St. Petersburg markets) amounted to 2.9 mln. sq m. By the end of the year this figure will reach 3.5 mln sq m.
Take-up in the regions in H1 2014 was double the same period of the previous year, reaching 217,000 sq m.
Markets in the regions are characterised by a high proportion of direct deals between the developer and the tenant or purchaser; this proportion can represent 30% to 90% of local absorption.
Depending on the region, 30-50% of the total stock is related to so-called "off market" projects that were initially built for end-user purposes before 2008; they do not affect the market, and are therefore not considered in this analysis (except for newly built projects).
In terms of level of market development, cities in Russia can be conditionally divided into 4 groups:
The Moscow and St. Petersburg markets, which have already reached the initial stages of saturation.
The actively growing markets of Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Samara, which have high potential for development and are close to the initial saturation stage.
The growing markets of Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, Chelyabinsk and Voronezh.
Under-developed markets in other cities, where the low level of development was primarily due to low demand for quality space, and individual projects were constructed for the end-user.
Prime rental rates for projects in the regions are $120/sq m/year, with average rents standing at $100/sq m/year.
•Q2 witnessed positive news from the fundamental macroeconomic factors: both the Rouble and GDP demonstrated an ability to show strong performance in a situation when geopolitical tensions are less severe
•However, the latter remain quite negative for the Russian economy. It is highly probable that they will continue influencing economic trends, at least in Q3
•With this in mind, CRE market participants are expected to continue following conservative business strategies
•The removal of the threat of sanctions on sectors of the Russian economy is the key trigger for more aggressive business actions
•Until then, demand on the CRE market is expected to be constrained. Nonetheless, developers will continue to finish ongoing projects. They are now attempting to have lower financial leverage, if possible