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∙ actual new supply was 40% lower than the forecast announced in the beginning of 2015. Nevertheless, developers announce delivery of 560,000 sq m. The actual new supply will reach around 60-70% from announced delivery, or 350,000 sq. m
∙ if the amount of new supply in 2016 remains comparable to 2015 figure and retailers activity will be low, the average vacancy rate could rise from current 9.5% to 11% by the end of 2016
∙ international retailers are still interested in the Russian retail market. 40 new international retailers entered the Moscow market in 2015
∙ generally, rental rates are nominated in rubles or fixed the exchange rate at 50-55 rubles per 1 USD. Compared to the pre-crisis level, rental rates changes are divergent and depend mostly on tenant profile
Take-up (new lease and sale deals) amounted to 870,400 sq m (18% higher than in 2014).
The largest share of Class A transactions in the history of Moscow office market, 43%, previously it has never exceed 41%. However, Class A volume in absolute terms, 373,400 sq m, is the largest only for the last four years.
The volume of renewals and renegotiations reached a historic high, 566,000 sq m.
The volume of new office delivery in 2015 amounted to 721,500 sq m which is almost twice less than in 2014 and forecasted for 2015 (1.4 mln sq m).
Overall vacancy increased from 16.6% in 2014 to 17.7% in 2015; from 12.8% to 14.8% in Class B and decreased from 28% to 26% in Class A.
The main trend for 2015 is the final transition of lease rates to roubles. If in H1 2015 Class B was predominantly characterised by rouble rates, then in Q4 the trend spread to Class A.
The investments into real estate assets were down by 36% YoY in US dollar terms and amounted to USD2.8 bn in 2015. However, the investment volume in ruble terms was the same as in 2014 and amounted to RUB168 bn.
Despite the economic turmoil, the interest to commercial real estate is still high, both from the Russian and foreign investors.
The re-pricing is happening because of FX market volatility, structural change of leasing income, and high cost of debt.
The main driver for investors now is the potential of asset value recovery on the back of market correction.
Take-up amounted to 211,400 sq m (47% higher than in Q1 and 13% higher than in Q2 2015).
Take-up may exceed 250,000 sq m in Q4 2015. However, the stabilisation of the Rouble and an absence of further negative events are key factors.
Renewals and renegotiations remained considerable, at 170,500 sq m (22% increase compared to Q2 2015).
Delivery of 300,000 sq m of office space has been postponed to 2016: as a result new supply for 2015 has decreased from 1.1 mln to 0.8 mln sq m. 240,600 sq m of new office space was commissioned in Q3 2015.
The vacancy rate increased from 16.9% to 17.6% due to the large amount of new delivery. The vacancy rate may stop increasing in Q4 2015.
Rental rates remained relatively stable. Reduction in asking rents affected only 6% of vacant Class A space.