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•The investment volume in 2016 amounted to USD4.5 bn (or RUB315 bn), being 37% higher than the same period of 2015 in dollar terms. About 34% of this amount was driven by the government sector deals, while there were no such deals in 2015. There were also several large deals where state bank took on their balance sheet assets converted from debt. We do not include those into investment volume due to their non-cash nature.
•There was still significant mismatch between buyer and seller expectations that prevented deal closure. The volume of real market deals was down by 10% compared to 2015, and amounted to almost USD3 bn.
•The share of Moscow amounted to 71% in 2016 compared to 94% in 2015. At the same time deals were closed not only in St. Petersburg, but also in other regional cities, in Novosibirsk, Sochi. Regional Hotel Chain deal alone purchase covered 8 regional cities.
Intensified demand from the companies of IT, Oil & Gas sectors, new office buildings developed for the owner needs or leased out at the construction stage led to the record absorption figures in 2016. The annual supply of office space amounted to 272,000 sq m of leasable area. 62% of the premises was not offered in the open market.
The volume of construction of new retail space is continued to decrease. The number of trade centers, which held reconception and updated pool of tenants is rising. Shopping centers aim at increasing the share of entertainment component. Grocery chains of economy format, low budget food retail chains, baby-goods stores are actively developing.
The main activity in 2016 was concentrated in the built-to-suit segment. 62% of warehouse complexes commissioned in 2016 were built-to-suit projects. The main driver of demand in 2016 were logistics companies. There is increasing demand from manufacturing companies.
Growth of domestic tourism, stable foreign tourist flow led to an increase of ADR and RevPar in all segments. In 2016 St. Petersburg was granted as a World’s Leading Cultural City Destination and received World Travel Awards - the most prestigious award in the tourism industry.
•In H2 2016 13 new shopping centres with total leasable area of 596,000 sq m were delivered in regional cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg excluded).
•The total amount of new shopping space delivered in 2016 in Russian regions amounted to 862,000 sq m which is 28% lower than in 2015.
•The biggest shopping centre launched in 2016 was Gudok in Samara (115,000 sq m GLA). Technical opening of the shopping centre was marked with the launch of the city’s second “Lenta” hypermarket. Opening of the fashion gallery is expected in 2017.
•3 shopping centres with leasable area of 92,000 sq m initially announced for delivery in 2016, were postponed to Q1 2017.
•In 2017 a further decline in delivery volume is expected. The current delivery forecast for 2017 is 542,000 sq m – a 37% drop compared to 2016. However megacities account for only 4 new projects of 2017, while the rest will be delivered in cities with lower saturation, as developers are seeking new locations for shopping centre development.
Lack of new business centers in the rental market and intensified demand from the companies of IT, construction, oil and gas sectors has led to a decrease in the vacancy rate to a record low level in class A. The vacancy rate in class B business centers has also continued to decline. These facts, along with Ruble exchange adjustments, led to an increase of rental rates: +21% in class A and +17,4% in class B in comparison with these indicators in December 2015.
The main annual growth of retail space in the market took place in Q3 2016. Shopping centers aim at increasing the share of entertainment component. Grocery chains of economy format, low budget food retail chains, baby-goods stores are actively developing.
Deficit of newly constructed speculative warehouses. 84% of warehouses commissioned in 2016 are built-to-suit projects. The majority of lease transactions is accounted for trading companies (46%). The demand from small manufactures for leasing and purchasing of industrial property is growing.