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Apartment market is one of the most developing segment in St. Petersburg real estate market over the past 5 years. The intensified demand for such projects and city planning restrictions give rise to their rapid emergence. In the Northern Capital the apartment market resembles more the residential real estate market than the hotel one.
As of September 2016 the number of existing apartment complexes in St. Petersburg accounts for no less than 18 projects (more than 3,000 units).
During the first eight months of 2016 three projects with a total number of 464 apartments were put into operation.
By the end of 2016 the developers announced commissioning of 6 projects with a total number of more than 1,000 apartments.
In St. Petersburg not less than 15 projects are at the stage of construction (4,000 apartments) and planned for commissioning by the end of 2018.
At least 11 complexes (6,493 apartments) were announced for development.
In H1 2016 one new shopping centre, Riviera, of 91,200 sq m GLA was delivered in Moscow.
6 new shopping centers are announced to be delivered by the end of the year. Five of them have a high probability of opening in Q3.
By the end of the year, shopping centre completion in Moscow may reach about 400,000 sq m.
In H1 2016, the vacancy rate in shopping centres remained flat at 9.3%. Minor growth of vacancy rate in new projects occurred due to completion of Riviera shopping centre.
In existing shopping centers delivered before 2014 the vacancy rate has been stable, at 7% for the last six months.
Several types of rental scheme are currently used in the market. They include various combinations of base rental rates and/or % of turnover as well as different contract currency options: US dollars, rubles, US dollars with a fixed exchange rate or corridor for a defined period.
In Q2 2016 111,800 sq m of new office space was commissioned. Thus, 174,900 sq m were introduced in H1 2016, which is 22% lower than in H1 2015.
Take-up volume in H1 2016 increased by 69% YoY and amounted to 557,100 sq m, 208,600 sq m (37%) of which are two business centers – Eurasia Tower (93,900 sq m) and President Plaza (114,700 sq m), which were withdrawn by VTB and Sberbank, respectively.
In the first half of the year lack of new class A business centers in the rental market and intensified demand from the companies relocating to St. Petersburg after Gazprom has led to a decrease in the vacancy rate to a record low level (8.7%). The vacancy rate in class B business centers decreased (11%) due to a large number of transactions with IT companies. Rental rates in USD increased marginally due to the ruble strengthening, +16% in class A business centers and +14.5% in class B business centers.
During the first half of 2016 only two hypermarkets were opened and no new shopping center. Decline in purchasing power of the population and decrease in shopping center attendance led to a fall in retail trade turnover. Low-cost food retail chains, low-budget catering and stores for children’s products are actively developing.
Deficit of newly constructed speculative warehouses. 83% of warehouses commissioned in 1st half of 2016 are built-to-suit projects. The majority of lease transactions accounted for trading companies. The demand from small manufactures for leasing and purchasing of industrial property is growing.
Increase of the tourists due to the domestic tourism development and substitution of a significant part of Western tourist flow by Chinese travelers led to a positive dynamic in the operating indicators for hotels in 1st half of the year. Active preparation for the World Cup in 2018 is still ongoing. The mandatory hotel classifications in the city has been completed.
Investment volume in Q2 2016 amounted to USD390 mn (or RUB25 bn), which was 50% lower than in Q2 2015. This dynamics partially could be explained by ruble strengthening, which has led to review of agreed value in rubles, as initially the investor capital is in foreign currency.
Decline in Q2 2016 did not affected the H1 2016 volume, which was two times higher than in H1 2015 and amounted to USD2,3 bn.
We confirm our forecast for 2016 at USD4.5 bn (or RUB306 bn), which is 45% more than in 2015. Notably, already closed deals amounted to more than half of this volume.