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The past year on the Moscow office market has been undisputedly recognised as the ‘year of the tenant’. CBRE conducted an investigation in order to determine what was important for developers and tenants, gauging their opinion of the market in general.
• In Q2 2015 the volume of newly delivered office space is expected to reach 170,000 sq m. So, for H1 2015 new delivery totals 260,000 sq m (47% less than in H1 2014).
• In H2 2015 around 840,000 sq m is announced for delivery (3 times more than in H1 2015). The volume of new delivery for 2015 is expected to reach 1.1 mln sq m.
• Due to the low level of new delivery in Q2, the market was relatively stable. We registered decrease of rents only in the small share of Class A business centres. Rents went down for 12% of available Class A space.
• Major changes in rents were registered in Class A office building within TTR with high vacancy (15-100%).
224,300 sq m of new office space was commissioned in H1 2015. A further 850,000 sq m is expected to be delivered in H2
Over 440,000 sq m of announced delivery is class A
The last peak of new delivery is expected in H2 2015, with subsequent drops in volume in 2016–2017
Take-up (includes new lease and sale deals) totalled 187,000 sq m – a 30% increase compared to Q1 2015, and an increase of 120% compared to Q2 2014
Class B transactions accounted for 60% of the total, while 40% were class A
Renewals and renegotiations totalled 139,500 sq m
The overall vacancy rate remained virtually unchanged – 16.9% (17% in Q1)
The vacancy rate fell slightly in the class A segment following the conclusion of several large deals, dropping from 27.4% to 25.8%
The vacancy rate in class B increased slightly: from 13.6% to 13.9%
The reduction in asking rents of about 5–7% affected 12% of all vacant class A properties
The majority of changes in rents were recorded for class A office premises located within the Third Transport Ring (TTR)
Asking rents at the end of Q2 2015: А Prime – $820–950 (5% decrease compared to Q1), class А in the city centre – $600–750 (7% decrease in comparison to Q1), class А in decentralised locations – $450–550 (unchanged), В – $250–400 (unchanged)
Two shopping centers were delivered to the market in Q2 2015, the total leasable area of which amounted to 88,600 sq m that is 15% of the total projected for the whole year
Thus, the total stock of quality retail spaces in Moscow amounts to 5,129,000 sq m, or 418 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants
A further 260,000 sq m of retail space announced for delivery by the end of 2015 but, according to our estimates, no more than 80% of this will be delivered. Thus, total delivery in 2015 will be approximately 535,000 sq m
At the beginning of 2015 the vacancy rate in SCs was 7%, increasing to 9% over the course of Q1 2015. The risk of the vacancy rate rising to 11-12% before the end of the year remains high
Prime rent for tenants occupying small areas (100-200 sq m) in the galleries of leading shopping centers is 1,700 $/sq m/year
Under the influence of weak retail sales and the high volume of new retail space delivery, rental rates may fall by another 5 to 10% in dollar terms by the end of the year
17 new retail chains entered the Moscow market in H1 2015. 10 additional international retail chains could enter the market by the end of 2015
By the end of H1 2015 the vacancy level in high streets fell to 7.9% or 36,904 sq m
Prime rental rate for the most liquid retail premises fell by around 7% compared to the end of 2014 and reach $ 6,500/sq m/year