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The current CRE market weakness to large extent is still driven by negative sentiments rather than fundamental factors
Market will remain under pressure, at least, until Q1 2015 included
Starting from Q2 2015, we might witness a gradual restoration of market balance, followed by a recovery in rental rates
Alternatively, CRE market indicators will be “flat”, with a possible deterioration, depending on the depth of an economic recession. In this case, the decrease in take up volumes in 2015 might exceed 20% compared to 2013
The problem of labour resource capacity is current for the whole logistics business. This is due not only to the recent emergence of the sector and to the infancy of the vocational training system, but also to the active growth of logistics in general.
The Moscow region, despite the fact that it is overcrowded, suffers from the common trend of labour force availability in the logistics industry. Moreover, the problem of labour resource capacity in the Moscow region in particular results from the uneven distribution of warehouse property geographically compared with population density.
The wealthiest locations in terms of labour resources are the North-East and East directions, while the main warehouse stock is in the North, North-West, South and South-East of the Moscow region.
This has led to local workforce shortages in most geographic directions and has resulted in competition for staff between logistics companies.
2014 – 2015 are likely to be the last years when the city centre will see such large volumes of new supply, due to the legislative changes
New projects in the CBD are likely to focus on redevelopment of existing buildings
In 2013 we registered the lowest volume of deals closed in the Prime CBD since 2010 (in 2013 take-up was around 39,000 sq m compared to 99,000 sq m in 2012). It follows general trend of decreased demand for CBD office space: 118,000 sq m in 2013 compared to 300,000 sq m in 2012
Negative political perception of Russia, as well as forecasts for deterioration of economic performance in 2014 influenced mainly the premium office segment. Owners of Class A buildings in central locations with high vacancy rates are ready to offer individual commercial terms to reliable tenants
Majority of respondents purchase clothes and footwear, accessories, jewelry, household goods etc. in regional and super regional shopping and entertainment malls with a gross leasable area (GLA) of more than 40,000 sq m.
Key factors of which shopping mall to visit include the price of the goods, and the cleanliness and location of the mall. The percentage of respondents who mentioned these three factors was 73%, 69% and 62% respectively. In this regard Europeans have the same criteria when choosing a shopping centre for the purchase of non-food
Navigation inside a shopping mall often becomes a critical factor for many visitors as it is sometimes unclear and inconvenient. Typical problems usually include a lack of signs and difficulties in understanding them
In H1 2014 the total stock in the regions (excluding the Moscow and St. Petersburg markets) amounted to 2.9 mln. sq m. By the end of the year this figure will reach 3.5 mln sq m.
Take-up in the regions in H1 2014 was double the same period of the previous year, reaching 217,000 sq m.
Markets in the regions are characterised by a high proportion of direct deals between the developer and the tenant or purchaser; this proportion can represent 30% to 90% of local absorption.
Depending on the region, 30-50% of the total stock is related to so-called "off market" projects that were initially built for end-user purposes before 2008; they do not affect the market, and are therefore not considered in this analysis (except for newly built projects).
In terms of level of market development, cities in Russia can be conditionally divided into 4 groups:
The Moscow and St. Petersburg markets, which have already reached the initial stages of saturation.
The actively growing markets of Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Samara, which have high potential for development and are close to the initial saturation stage.
The growing markets of Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, Chelyabinsk and Voronezh.
Under-developed markets in other cities, where the low level of development was primarily due to low demand for quality space, and individual projects were constructed for the end-user.
Prime rental rates for projects in the regions are $120/sq m/year, with average rents standing at $100/sq m/year.
Delivery of new offices was as expected. Extremely large amount of newly delivered offices, 323,700 sq m
Three Class A office buildings totalling 158,900 sq m – President Plaza, Arcus III, Aurora BP Building F
Lowest quarterly take-up for the last thirteen years, at 84,400 sq m. With such a low amount of new transactions, lease renewal deals accounted for 30% of the total
Q2 take-up 60% less than Q1
64% of closed deals were in Class B buildings, with 36% in Class A
The majority of deals were signed by Russian companies, 75% of the total
Units of up to 1,000 sq m were in highest demand, accounting for 82% of the total number of deals
The area inside the Third Transport Ring (TTR) accounted for the highest level of take-up (73% of the total); however, the area beyond the TTR still accounted for the highest level of new supply (74% of the total)
Vacancy has reached 14.5%. As it approaches 16-17%, it may force lease rates down below current levels
Vacancy increased in both Class A (from 20.6% in Q1 2014 to 24% in Q2) and Class B properties (from 10.8% to 12%)
Positive GDP growth forecasts, high oil prices and stabilisation of the Russian Rouble have allowed lease rates to remain stable
Two shopping malls (Vesna and Vegas Crocus City) and 3rd stage of Trading Park Otrada with DIY hypermarket OBI inside were delivered to the market in Q2 2014.
Total leasable area of delivered shopping malls amounts to 179,000 sqm. It significantly contributed in the new supply of H1 2014 (280,000 sqm). The latter is equivalent to 45% of the expected yearly new delivery.
Thus, supply of the modern retail space in Moscow reached 4,380 thous. sqm, or 362 sqm / 1,000 inhabitants.
In Q2 developers announced 2 new retail schemes – shopping mall June at NIIDAR
Vacancy rate in the modern Moscow shopping malls increased to 2,9 %.
8 new international brands entered Moscow market in Q2: Armani Jeans, Deichmann, Harmont & Blaine, Moncler, Norma J. Baker, Prenatal Milano, Tartine et Chocolat, Tony Moly. Totally 16 new brands entered Moscow market in the first half of the year.
In Q2 4 more international brands announced plans to open their first stores in Moscow. Around 17 new chain retailers may have come to Moscow market by the end of the year.