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11 high-quality shopping centres were commissioned in the regions (all cities in Russia except Moscow and St. Petersburg) in the first half of 2015, covering a total leasable area of 398,000 sq m.
The total stock of high-quality retail space in the regions therefore exceeded 11 million sq m.
Delivery in the second half of the year will total around 520,000 sq m
Small towns with a population of less than 500 thousand inhabitants, meanwhile, will recover faster than others, seeing increases of 80-100% for new retail space.
The delivery of new quality retail space is stimulating the active expansion of existing retailers into regions. Novosibirsk, Barnaul and Perm were the most attractive markets in the first half of 2015
• In Q2 2015 the volume of newly delivered office space is expected to reach 170,000 sq m. So, for H1 2015 new delivery totals 260,000 sq m (47% less than in H1 2014).
• In H2 2015 around 840,000 sq m is announced for delivery (3 times more than in H1 2015). The volume of new delivery for 2015 is expected to reach 1.1 mln sq m.
• Due to the low level of new delivery in Q2, the market was relatively stable. We registered decrease of rents only in the small share of Class A business centres. Rents went down for 12% of available Class A space.
• Major changes in rents were registered in Class A office building within TTR with high vacancy (15-100%).
Two shopping centers were delivered to the market in Q2 2015, the total leasable area of which amounted to 88,600 sq m that is 15% of the total projected for the whole year
Thus, the total stock of quality retail spaces in Moscow amounts to 5,129,000 sq m, or 418 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants
A further 260,000 sq m of retail space announced for delivery by the end of 2015 but, according to our estimates, no more than 80% of this will be delivered. Thus, total delivery in 2015 will be approximately 535,000 sq m
At the beginning of 2015 the vacancy rate in SCs was 7%, increasing to 9% over the course of Q1 2015. The risk of the vacancy rate rising to 11-12% before the end of the year remains high
Prime rent for tenants occupying small areas (100-200 sq m) in the galleries of leading shopping centers is 1,700 $/sq m/year
Under the influence of weak retail sales and the high volume of new retail space delivery, rental rates may fall by another 5 to 10% in dollar terms by the end of the year
17 new retail chains entered the Moscow market in H1 2015. 10 additional international retail chains could enter the market by the end of 2015
By the end of H1 2015 the vacancy level in high streets fell to 7.9% or 36,904 sq m
Prime rental rate for the most liquid retail premises fell by around 7% compared to the end of 2014 and reach $ 6,500/sq m/year