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Structure of take-up: the negative trends of 2014 have most strongly influenced the distribution segment. The share of forward transactions and build-to-suit schemes is decreasing
1 mln. sq m is planned for delivery in 2015; 498,000 sq m of this pipeline is close to completion. Demand in 2015 is expected to remain relatively weak and decrease to 0.8-0.85 mln. sq m as a result of an expected decline in consumer demand and the postponement of further market expansion by retailers. These factors, along with a high vacancy rate, will stimulate price wars and suspension of projects. A fall in new supply to 0.5 mln. sq m will help to stabilise the market
1.4 mln. sq m is the highest amount of new office buildings commissioned since 2009
More than half of the buildings are Class A: President Plaza, OKO, Stalnaya Vershina, Arcus 3, Mebe One Khimki Plaza, Krasnaya Roza Morozov Phase II and Demidov, Vodny, Lotos, Comcity Phase Alfa, Romanov Dvor III, Dominion Tower, and K2 building A
The area outside the TTR has traditionally seen the largest amounts of new office delivery (69% of the total)
Take-up totalled 736,700 sq m, a sharp decrease of 31% compared to 2013
73% of total take-up was Class B space, and 27% Class A
39% of total take-up was in the area between the TTR and MKAD, versus 50% in 2013
Russian companies remained the most active with 84% of the total take-up
Office units up to 1,000 sq m were in high demand, representing 77% of the total number of transactions
Overall vacancy increased significantly from 12% in 2013 to 16.6% in 2014
In Class B space, vacancy increased from 11% to 12.8%; the increase in Class A was more substantial, from 17% to 28%
Achievable rents decreased by 20-30% compared to the beginning of 2014. Asking rents fell by 15-20% in 2014
Tenants are asking for rents to be denominated in Roubles. If the rent is not requested in Roubles, the required rent is achieved by means of fixing the bottom level of the exchange rate. Owners try to meet the requirements if they want to keep tenants
The exchange rate band is usually at the level of 45-55 Roubles for a term from 6 months up to 2 (even 3) years
In Q1 2015, depending on the rigidity of the macroeconomic scenario and the Rouble exchange rate, rental rates fixed in dollars could fall by a further 10-30%; if this happens, they would be lower in absolute terms than during the 2008-2009 crisis
Asset prices have declined by 10-50% over the last year and this process is not finished yet
Most of the negative events have either already occurred or will occur in Q1 2015
The risks are still high, but the end of Q2 2015 could be a good time for acquisitions
In the second half of 2014, total new delivery in regional centres (excluding Moscow and St. Petersburg) amounted to 450,000 sq m, making 700,000 sq m for the whole year.
Only 30% of the new delivery was speculative. 70% of the new I&L space consisted of BTS-projects or space constructed after the agreement of a contract with a tenant/purchaser.
Total take-up in the regions rose 30% compared with 2013 and reached 368,000 sq m, which was in line with business activity in the FMCG retail sector.
Overall, 2014 in the regional centres was characterised by a continuation of the trend seen in 2012-2013: development of new projects following BTS or pre-let/pre-sale agreements with tenants/ purchasers.