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2016 in the office real estate segment began with a record-high number of the development completions. Most part of them is not offered for lease but built for own needs or leased out at the construction phase. The volume of vacant space continues to balance at the same level and amounts to ca. 300,000 sq m, the asking average rental rates on the market are stable.
2015-2016 is one of the most challenging periods for the retail real estate market of
St. Petersburg. It is confirmed by the minimum volume of new shopping centers and hypermarkets under construction, vacancy rate growth, reduction of retail turnover and drop in purchasing power.
In 2016 developers do not plan to start working on new speculative projects. Activity in the built-to-suit segment also slowed down. Rents have reached the "bottom" and are comparable to the level of 2011. Further decline is not expected, otherwise business will fail to post a profit. The vacancy rate is 6.3% (150,000 sq m), the offer on the sublease market grows.
Completions in Q1 2016 was the lowest quarterly value over the last 10 years and amounted to 63,100 sq m of new office space, which is 30% less than in Q1 2015.
The take-up volume in Q1 2016 increased by 17% in comparison to Q1 2015 and amounted to 167,600 sq m, 57,900 sq m of which are class A offices.
Despite the increase in the overall vacancy rate of 0.3 ppts, in absolute terms the increase amounts to 50,000 sq m and does not exceed the volume of the new delivery. All new delivery was of class B, which increased class B vacancy by 0.6 ppts.
Rental rates remained stable in Q1 2016, at RUB19,000–25,000 per sq m per year for Class A, RUB13,000–23,000 per sq m per year for Class B, net of operating expenses and VAT.
During 2013-2015, the most active year for new entries was 2014 when 54 new brands entered the market. In 2015, despite negative economic conditions, such factors as the activity of international retail chains and the interest to Russian retail market are saved. 52 new brands have entered the market during the year. Nearly 60% of new players are retail chains of middle and budget price segments. Consumer goods of these segments are in high demand in Russia. The decrease in real disposable income causes an increased demand for new budget brands. With high probability, new retail chains continue to enter the market and develop as the stabilization of consumer demand both in Moscow and in regional markets. It can be expected that in 2016–2017 not less than 30 new brands will enter the Russian market. In fact, this number may be higher
В течение 2013-2015 гг. рекорд по выходу новых международных розничных сетей на российский рынок был зафиксирован в 2014 году – 54 бренда. В 2015 году, несмотря на неблагоприятные экономические предпосылки, активность новых розничных сетей и интерес к российскому рынку ритейла сохранились: в течение года в России появилось 52 новых международных сети. Чуть более 60% «новичков» - это розничные сети среднего и эконом сегментов. Продукция представителей этих сегментов традиционно пользуется высоким спросом со стороны российских покупателей, а снижение реальных располагаемых доходов в новых экономических условиях провоцирует повышенный спрос на новые бюджетные бренды Вполне вероятно, что новые сети продолжат выходить на рынок и развиваться по мере стабилизации потребительского спроса как на московском, так и на региональных рынках. Всего мы ожидаем в 2016-2017 гг. около 30 новых международных сетей. Фактически же их число может быть больше.
∙ actual new supply was 40% lower than the forecast announced in the beginning of 2015. Nevertheless, developers announce delivery of 560,000 sq m. The actual new supply will reach around 60-70% from announced delivery, or 350,000 sq. m
∙ if the amount of new supply in 2016 remains comparable to 2015 figure and retailers activity will be low, the average vacancy rate could rise from current 9.5% to 11% by the end of 2016
∙ international retailers are still interested in the Russian retail market. 40 new international retailers entered the Moscow market in 2015
∙ generally, rental rates are nominated in rubles or fixed the exchange rate at 50-55 rubles per 1 USD. Compared to the pre-crisis level, rental rates changes are divergent and depend mostly on tenant profile